A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
